The Scottish referendum: Bookies were predicting an 80 percent potential for a ‘no’ vote, whilst the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.
Did bookies understand the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.
Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters determining against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was as wide as 10 %; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions had been split straight down the middle.
The truth is, polls were all around the spot: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from the six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.
Margins of mistake
Maybe Not the bookies, though. That they had it all figured out ages ago. As the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online recreations outfit that is betting had already determined to spend bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote a few times ahead of the referendum even occurred. And even though there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from a positi